With turnout in the Democrat Primary low, and divisions arising in critical local organizations, trouble may be brewing for the Biden campaign early in the General Election cycle.
While Biden cruised to victory in Pennsylvania’s virtually uncontested Democratic Presidential Primary last Tuesday, turnout trends across the state, and more specifically the southeast, point to an enthusiasm issue for the President going into the General Election.
Strong performance in Philadelphia and the collar counties is vital to any Democrat looking to win statewide in Pennsylvania.
Outside of the rural counties of Potter, Forest, and Bedford, Democrat turnout was down across the state compared to the 2020 Primary. Turnout was especially low in Philadelphia and the collar counties; -20.4% in Chester, -20.3% in Montgomery, -12.7% in Bucks, -19.1% in Delaware, and -17.4% in Philadelphia.
Not only did more than 500,000 Philadelphia Democrats not vote in the April Primary, but the Democrat activists in the city are starting to get uneasy.
A profile in the Philadelphia Inquirer published this week details deep divisions between the establishment and the grassroots of the Philadelphia Democrat party. While the Biden wing of the party attempts to project calm, the grassroots is growing nervous.
“The numbers were horrible, even for a primary, and the turnout keeps getting worse and worse.” lamented a committeeman from Mount Airy, before continuing, “What has happened to this army of party people who are supposed to be advocating for their neighbors?”
On its own, low turnout in an uncontested primary could be due to the low stakes of the election but considering recent polling and Biden’s performance on issues like crime and the economy, it’s clear he has some work to do.
Recent polling from Emerson College, Kaplan Strategies, and CBS News all shows Trump now leading over Biden in Pennsylvania. On the issues, Biden is currently underwater on his handling of the economy, and voters think Biden isn’t tough enough on crime. Even Democrat voters in Philadelphia, a critical voting bloc for Biden, have a negative outlook on crime in the city.
The war waging in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas may also be creating Democrat enthusiasm issues for Biden.
With pro-Palestine protests roiling college campuses and cities over the past few months, leftist activists have tried to voice their displeasure with Biden’s handling of the issue by urging voters to vote ‘uncommitted’ in their states’ Primary. In PA this took the form of a write-in campaign for other candidates resulting in significantly higher numbers than in the 2020 primary.
