Ahead of this year’s election, analysis reveals that Democrats are performing worse among voters without college degrees.
When President Joe Biden won the 2020 election, he improved the Democratic vote among almost every demographic of voter in Pennsylvania after Hillary Clinton’s 2016 loss. However, Biden lost support across the state in areas that had far lower rates of college education than the rest of Pennsylvania.
An analysis found that college education was the single largest predictor of vote change from 2016 to 2020.
Only a third of adults in Pennsylvania have a college degree and the trend of Democrats losing support among this demographic could be a predictor of the outcome of the upcoming November election. “I don’t think it’s overstated to say that education, beyond any other demographic factor, has impacted American politics and polarization,” said Chris Borick, director of the Institute of Public Opinion at Muhlenberg College.
Education was not always a defining factor in the polls. Borick said that in the past, “education didn’t move the needle much. So, we just avoided it.” He added that “2016 changed all of that.”
White voters without a college degree abandoning Democrats cost Clinton Pennsylvania in 2016. A 2020 analysis also found that other key groups have started polarizing along educational lines. Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters without a college education are among those that are shifting away from Democrats.
In a heavily Democratic Harrisburg precinct, Biden won in 2020 by 314 less votes than Clinton had in 2016. In a red township of Lancaster County, Biden still had 542 less votes than Clinton.
Pennsylvania is one of the most critical battleground states for both candidates, who have been prioritizing visits to the Commonwealth in the last few months before the election.
