Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill are the two frontrunners in one of the nation’s key gubernatorial races.
New Jersey voters head to the polls Tuesday to decide who will replace outgoing incumbent Phil Murphy as the state’s next governor. While Sherrill – a four-term Democratic congresswoman – maintained a slight lead over former assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, the race is expected to be one of the nation’s closest and most watched. The latter faces an uphill battle as he attempts to flip New Jersey red, following two terms of Democratic leadership from Murphy.
According to statistician Nate Silver of 538, Sherrill’s lead narrowed in the last couple weeks from a high of 6.6 points. The congresswoman’s lead, now south of 4 points by some sources, has been hurt by Gov. Murphy’s diminishing popularity in his final year and Republicans’ successful 2024 showing in which the party flipped 20% of previously blue New Jersey districts. A recent AtlasIntel poll has the race at its closest, giving Sherrill 50.2% of the vote, and Ciattarelli 49.3%.
The AtlasIntel poll – widely considered one of the most accurate polls – also asked voters about President Trump, who maintains a higher approval rating than Gov. Murphy. Forty-seven percent of New Jersey voters approve of the President’s performance early in his second term, while just 43% approve of Gov. Murphy following his eight years in office. Of the voters who backed Kamala Harris in 2024, 3.2% expect to vote for Ciattarelli for governor, a much higher total than the 0.6% who backed Trump but plan to vote for Sherrill.
The race in New Jersey is being closely followed across the country, with both Democrats and Republicans placing financial backing behind Sherrill and Ciattarelli respectively. Last week, former President Barack Obama praised Sherrill at a Saturday campaign appearance, during which he called the congresswoman “New Jersey’s right choice” to be governor. Sherrill also received support from Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, one of the most popular Democrats and considered an early candidate for the 2028 presidential race. Additionally, the DNC approved an additional $500,000 behind Sherrill and Virginia Gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger, on top of $3 million already spent by the committee.
But Ciattarelli is now receiving his own backing, with the RNC pledging an additional five full-time staffers as aides and launching a voter mobilization tool called VotePro to help New Jersey voters find their proper polling locations. An RNC spokesperson called the race “up for grabs” as of election day, citing Democrats’ massive spend in the state and Sherrill’s shrinking lead in the polls. Ciattarelli is vocal about his support for President Trump, while Sherrill accused the president of purposefully leaking her personal military files in an effort to “weaponize” agencies against her campaign.
Both candidates used affordability as central pieces for their campaigns, with both arguing that the cost of living remains too high. Ciattarelli proposes a plan to cut state spending by $17 billion, or 30% off the state’s expected $58.7 billion budget for 2026. He’s been vocal on lowering taxes on businesses to increase innovation and rejected calls to increase sales tax. Sherrill’s campaign aims to expand Gov. Phil Murphy’s affordable housing plan if elected, which is currently shy of 200,000 units needed to achieve full occupancy.
