New polling shows a key part of Biden’s coalition shrinking from the levels that helped him secure critical swing states in 2020.
Exit polling showed Biden won voters aged 18-29 over Trump by a margin of 60% to 36%. With Biden winning the key swing states of Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania by close to a percentage point or less, his dominance with youth voters was a major factor in his victory.
Recent polling, however, shows Biden’s lead with youth voters down significantly from 2020 levels and former President Trump making meaningful gains.
A recent survey conducted by the Harvard Kennedy Institute of Politics shows Biden’s lead shrinking as low as single digits with 45% support for President Biden, 37% for former President Trump, and 16% undecided. A poll conducted by the New York Times last month of voters in Pennsylvania and 5 other swing states showed voters aged 18-29 favoring Trump 30% to 26%.
Here in Pennsylvania, Biden’s youth voter desertion is holding. Polling from the Philadelphia Inquirer shows former President Trump just a point behind Biden, 46% to 47%. In a similar poll conducted a month before the 2020 election, the then-incumbent President Trump only registered 32% support from voters aged 18-29.
Multiple potential factors are contributing to the cratering youth support for President Biden, including his economic policy, inflation, the Israel-Hamas war, and the Southern Border.
In the Harvard IOP Youth Poll, Biden’s approval rating among youth voters sits at just 31%. These same voters gave him an even lower approval rating for the economy (30%), inflation (23%), and the Israel-Hamas war (18%). Furthermore, the same poll shows most young Americans believe there’s a crisis at the Southern border, with 53%.
